Future European Geopolitical Evolution

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This map by JaySimons on Deviantart shows the possible future-to-be territorial situation in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, if all regions actively striving for independence manage to achieve it. Potential new independent countries are shown in red (with the claimed Islamic State is shown in dark grey). Regions shown on the map that are likely to gain independence in the next 1-2 decades are as follows (click map to enlarge and read explanation by Jay below). What do you think?future_european_geopolitical_evolution_by_jaysimons

ABKHAZIA: Currently under the status of “Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia”, recognized only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Nauru as an independent state.

BASQUE COUNTRY:
Strong independence movements in the area can drive the Basque Country to secede from Spain in the near future.

CATALONIA:
If Scotland becomes an independent country, strong independence movements in the area can drive the Catalonia to completely secede from Spain in the near future. Catalonia is one of the most likely candidates for the next new country.

CORSICA:
Major percentage of Corsican population support its independence from France. If the trend of secession estabilishes in Europe, Corsica is a likely candidate for the next country.

CYRENAICA:
After the Libyan Civil War, the country fell into anarchy and is currently de-facto divided in three provinces. Possible unification of Libya in the future is extremely improbable, and Cyrenaica’s independence is likely to be recognized in the near future

FEZZAN:
After the Libyan Civil War, the country fell into anarchy and is currently de-facto divided in three provinces. Possible unification of Libya in the future is extremely improbable, and Fezzan’s independence is likely to be recognized in the near future

FLANDERS:
If the internal disputes in Belgium become stronger, the country is likely to split in two, Dutch-speaking Flanders and francophone Wallonia. In case that happens Brussels is likely going to be either divided or to become a city-state on its own.

KURDISTAN:
Numerous Kurdish nationalist organizations seek to create an independent state of Kurdistan within the regions where Kurds form the majority.
Kurds fighting in the Syrian Civil War were able to take control of large sections of northeast Syria as forces loyal to Assad withdrew to fight elsewhere. Having established their own government, some Kurds called for autonomy in a democratic Syria; others hope to establish an independent Kurdistan.

NOVOROSSIYA:
In early 2014, Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the Eastern Ukraine declared independence from the rest of the country, and later unified, forming an unrecognized state of Novorossiya.
The situation is unlikely to return back to its pre-war status and Novorossiya is likely to be either annexed by Russia or to become an independent country

SARDINIA:
Major part of Sardinian population support its independence from Italy. If the trend of secession estabilishes in Europe, Sardinia is a likely candidate for the next country.

SCOTLAND:
After the independence referendum is held in mid-September, Scotland will either secede from the United Kingdom or gain a greater degree of autonomy within the country

SOUTH OSSETIA:
Currently recognized only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Nauru as an independent state.

TRANSNISTRIA:
Currently unrecognized by any UN member state, however, Transnistria is an de-facto independent presidential republic with its own government, military, flag and currency.
It is likely to gain higher degree of international recognition in the future.

TRIPOLITANIA:
After the Libyan Civil War, the country fell into anarchy and is currently de-facto divided in three provinces. Possible unification of Libya in the future is extremely improbable, and Tripolitania’s independence is likely to be recognized in the near future

VENETO:
Venetian region of Italy is home to a notable nationalist movement. Unofficial independence poll was held in 2014, and staggering 89% of residents voted for secession. Higher degree of autonomy in the future is very likely

VOJVODINA:
Already an autonomous province of Serbia with population of more than 2 million, it is possible that Vojvodina will gain independence in the next few decades.

WALLONIA:
If the internal disputes in Belgium become stronger, the country is likely to split in two, Dutch-speaking Flanders and francophone Wallonia. In case that happens Brussels is likely going to be either divided or to become a city-state on its own.



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